January, 2016 – NAI Global Outlook: Where are the Risks and Opportunities?

By Dr. Peter Linneman, NAI Global Chief Economist

The U.S. economy is fairly strong, but key indicators show that it remains well below long-term trend. For example, real GDP is more than $2.6 trillion (12.8%) below the long term trend, while the employment shortfall is at 19 million jobs (11.6%). The GDP gap is equivalent to a shortfall of $8,322 per capita, and in aggregate, exceeds the real GDP of France, the sixth largest economy in the world. The potential to fill this gap depends on the rebound of the housing and auto sectors.

We forecast 2.9 million new jobs in each year of 2015- 2018 (about 2% per annum) and 2.7 million new jobs in 2019 (1.8%). In August 2015, the nation had 3.9 million more jobs than the pre-recession peak of 138.4 million jobs in December of 2007; however, it must be remembered that the population is 17.6 million greater than it was in 2007. (Continue reading…)

About Dr. Peter Linneman
Dr. Peter Linneman is the chief economist of NAI Global, the principal of Linneman Associates, and the CEO and founder of American Land Fund and of KL Realty. He previously served as the Albert Sussman Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, the founding chairman of Wharton’s Real Estate Department, and  the Director of Wharton’s Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center for 13 years. He has also been named one of the 100 Most Powerful People in New York real estate according to The New York Observer and one of the 25 most influential people in commercial real estate by Realtor Magazine.